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January 27, 2008

Landslide

To understand the scope of Barack Obama's big victory in South Carolina on Saturday, consider this. Obama not only defeated Hillary Clinton by a 2-1 margin, he also won more votes in the South Carolina primary than Republican frontrunners John McCain and Mike Huckabee combined. Yes, that is not a misprint.

Democratic turnout was incredibly strong in this Republican state, indicating that the Democrats are much more excited about the race and their candidates than the Republicans were a week before. A record 530,000 Democrats voted Saturday, nearly 100,000 more than in last week's Republican primary.

Obama's numbers in this red state also suggested that he might be able to assemble a national multiracial coalition in the fall general election campaign that could compete and win in some southern states traditionally won by Republicans. About as many South Carolina white men voted for Obama as for Clinton, and about 70 percent of white voters said they would be satisfied if Obama won the Democratic nomination, according to exit polls reported in the New York Times today.

The news also spelled trouble for Clinton, whose campaign was widely criticized by fellow Democrats for negative attacks. "If the South Carolina result buoyed the Obama team, it left Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign facing a new set of questions," the New York Times reported. "Her advisers’ steady attacks on Mr. Obama appeared to prove fruitless, if not counterproductive, and the attack-dog role of former President Bill Clinton seemed to have backfired."

Perhaps as a result of the negative campaigning and their enthusiasm for a viable African American candidate, black voters in South Carolina abandoned the Clintons after years of loyalty. Even black women, a targeted constituency by both campaigns, voted overwhelmingly for Obama. "More than half of black voters in the state said the country was definitely ready for a black president, while only about a quarter of white voters reached the same conclusion," the Times reported. That's a dramatic turnaround from other polls that had shown that blacks were less likely than whites to believe America was ready for a black president.

It was a stunning victory for Obama that exceeded all expectations. With Clinton and Obama now tied with 2 wins each, the battle turns to the delegate count and the Super Tuesday election on February 5. If Hillary Clinton hoped to surprise or startle Obama in South Carolina, she failed. If Obama hoped to prove himself in that state, he more than succeeded.

January 21, 2008

An Ugly Debate With A Surprise Ending

Just finished watching the South Carolina debate and I have a few quick observations. I thought the first hour was a hot mess. Clinton and Obama spent a good deal of time throwing mud at each other, and I don't think it helped either of them. John Edwards also played a critical role, at one point teaming up with Clinton against Obama, especially on the question of his voting "present" more than 100 times in the Illinois state senate. But Edwards didn't hold back against Clinton either and he took her on as well.

The nastiest exchange of the entire debate took place when Senator Obama charged that he was working as a community organizer while Clinton was a corporate lawyer on the board of Wal-Mart. Clinton fired back by saying that she was working against the Republicans when Obama was a lawyer representing a slumlord in Chicago. Score one point for each candidate.

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Why The Pollsters Still Don't Understand Race

Two weeks after the election, analysts are still scratching their heads trying to come up with an explanation for the stunning disparity between the pre-primary polls and the final results in the New Hampshire primary.

The prevailing theory seems to blame the problem on the unusually large number of undecided voters who made up their minds at the last minute. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton won that group.

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January 14, 2008

Who's Playing The Race Card?

Barack Obama and Ludacris

Is it just me, or is race suddenly becoming an issue in the presidential campaign that it wasn't before Barack Obama won Iowa?

Last week, former Bush political strategist Karl Rove described Obama's unfortunate "you're likable enough" remark to Hillary Clinton at the New Hampshire presidential debate as "trash talking" that he said "was an unattractive carryover from his days playing pickup basketball at Harvard."

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January 08, 2008

The Comeback Girl

They said it would never happen. They said the Clintons were politically dead and would never recover from a huge loss in Iowa and the projected loss in New Hampshire. But something funny happened on the way to the nomination tonight. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton upset Barack Obama by pulling out a stunning victory. The polls were completely wrong, and at the end of the day, the pundits were left scratching their heads.

Last month I predicted Barack Obama would win New Hampshire and Hillary Clinton would win Iowa. As it turns out, I had it completely backwards. But oddly enough, I predicted the Republican result completely accurately in both Iowa and New Hampshire. I predicted Huckabee, Romney and McCain would finish first, second and third in Iowa and McCain, Romney and Huckabee would finish first, second and third in New Hampshire. Maybe I'm too close to the Democratic field to make objective analysis.

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January 06, 2008

So Who Won?

I watched both the Republican and Democratic debates and I didn't see a clear winner in either one.

On the Democratic side, I thought all the candidates were competent and strong. I loved the part at the end when they talked about what mistakes they had made during the campaign in previous debates. It was also interesting that Edwards and Obama seemed to team up on the left (literally and figuratively) on the change side and Clinton and Richardson, when he wasn't busy pounding on the table, seemed to team up on the right (literally and figuratively) on the experience side. When did experience become a leper, Richardson asked.

On the Republican side, Romney was the focus of much of the attention and criticism, but John McCain curiously didn't speak up much. All the Republicans, except for maybe Ron Paul, were far too conservative for me. It seems they only talk about fear-based issues like national security, 9/11, "Islamofascism," terrorism and illegal immigration.

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January 03, 2008

Obama's Big Night

The night belonged to Barack Obama. Mike Huckabee won the Republican vote in the Iowa caucuses, but the night really belonged to Obama. After a long hard fight, Obama emerged on top with a strong victory over his two closest rivals, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

It was also a night about change. A record 220,000 Democrats showed up at the caucuses to cast their public ballots in the election. When all the votes were counted, Obama won convincingly, carrying most of the 99 counties in the state, winning on all the major issues that the voters cared about, and even carrying the women's vote against a formidable woman candidate.

To see my law school classmate standing on the stage as the first African American ever to win the Iowa Caucuses made me extremely proud. I felt proud to be a black man and proud to be an American tonight. "They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high," Obama began his speech. "But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do."

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