Official 2008 Iowa and NH Predictions

By Keith Boykin, in politics
Thursday, December 20 2007, 12:56PM

Clinton and Huckabee Will Win Iowa

Two weeks from today, voters in Iowa will cast the first votes in the 2008 presidential election cycle, and the race on both sides is still too close to call. At the moment, Obama and Huckabee are leading in the polls in Iowa, but the former frontrunners, Clinton and Romney, are right on their heels. It's a very tight race and the polls are all over the map, but I'm going to take a risk and make a prediction today.

Looking at the trends and the momentum in the first two contests, it looks like Huckabee's momentum as the new GOP frontrunner is still going strong. On the other side, the untold story is that Clinton seems to have contained the losses she suffered as Obama surged in that state recently. All of this works into a complex arrangement that leads us into an even tighter contest in New Hampshire. Based on what I see now, I'm going to predict that Clinton and Huckabee will win Iowa. But then, in a real shocker, Obama and McCain will win New Hampshire.

Here's how it works.

How Clinton Wins Iowa

First, you have to understand something about Iowa. Iowa Caucus Democrats traditionally favor establishment candidates over insurgents. In 2004, John Kerry beat the insurgent Howard Dean. In 2000, Al Gore beat the insurgent Bill Bradley. There were no real insurgent candidates from 1988 to 1996, but in 1984, Walter Mondale defeated insurgent Gary Hart. And in 1980, Jimmy Carter beat insurgent Ted Kennedy. If Obama is the insurgent to Clinton as the establishment candidate, Clinton wins.

Second, you have to digest the numbers. I collected all the data from Real Clear Politics, which is an excellent resource for political news, polls and other information. Obama has a 2 point lead in the average of the 5 most recent polls taken in Iowa. That spread is largely due to a Quad City Times poll that gave Obama a 9 point lead from December 10-13. But Obama's lead has narrowed or vanished in the rest of the polls taken since then. An ABC/Washington Post poll gave him a 4 point lead and a poll by Insider Advantage gave him a 1 point lead, well within the margin of error. The most recent two polls gave Clinton the lead, by 4 points and 2 points respectively. (Note: A few minutes after this article was posted, a new poll was released that showed Clinton with a 4 point lead in Iowa, reducing Obama's spread to 1 point.)

Most of those numbers are within the margin of error, suggesting that no candidate has a clear victory map ahead. But there's a danger signal for Obama. He surged in early December, just in time to capture the media attention going into the final weeks of the race. It was almost a perfect time to peak. Of course, the best time to peak is on election day. But since his surge began, Clinton has fought back hard (I would argue too hard at times) and now appears to be catching up if not overtaking Obama. He or she who has the momentum at the end of the race will win.

But since we're going into holiday mode starting tomorrow and continuing until January 1, the race will likely be frozen in time, giving the candidates just one day (January 2) to campaign effectively before the caucuses. If the race is frozen where it is now, that gives Clinton a leg up. Based on that scenario, Clinton should do well. But she also has another advantage.

Although Iowa voters are more likely to choose Obama than Clinton as their second choice, that brings Edwards into play. Obama and Edwards are both trying to find and win the same anti-Clinton change voters. But taken together, they diffuse the huge anti-Clinton vote (53.2 percent by my calculation) into separate camps.

Clinton's advantage is with Richardson and Biden. Together, they account for about 12 percent of likely Iowa caucus voters. In my judgment, these Iowans are not "change" voters. If they wanted change they would support Obama or Edwards. Instead, what Richardson and Biden offer is experience, and if these voters want someone with experience, they're likely to look to Hillary Clinton as their best option for a second choice if their own candidates don't get enough votes in the caucus.

If Clinton wins the majority of the Richardson-Biden voters and Obama and Edwards split the anti-Clinton "change" voters, then Clinton wins a narrow victory in Iowa. I predict:

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Barack Obama
3. John Edwards.

How Obama Wins New Hampshire

After Iowa, it's a 2-person race on the Democratic side. Edwards, who nearly won Iowa in 2004 and has spent years in the state since then, suffers a mortal blow. The collapse of Edwards in Iowa helps Obama in New Hampshire, where he is currently trailing Clinton by a 6 point average in the 5 most recent polls.

Edwards polls about 16 percent in Iowa, which is much higher than the 9 percent between Richardson and Biden. If a significant number of the Edwards, Richardson and Biden voters defect to the 2 leading candidates, then Obama could gain a net pickup high enough to give him a victory.

That's not an unlikely scenario if Hillary Clinton wins Iowa. Although Clinton gets great press out of an Iowa victory and gets to call herself the "comeback kid" or the "comeback girl," the people who don't like Clinton suddenly realize that she might win the nomination unless they vote against her. If that happens, voters will be acting pragmatically to determine who is the best Democratic candidate to beat Clinton. With tens of millions of dollars in the bank, lots of positive publicity and a respectable performance in Iowa, Barack Obama becomes the clear and sole alternative to Clinton.

Obama will be under tremendous pressure to perform in the granite state. If he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, it will be very difficult for him to win the nomination. If he takes one out of the two, that makes it an even race heading into the crucial Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary. In the end, I predict:

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

After that, Edwards will struggle to stay on until the South Carolina primary, but he won't make it past the results of Super Tuesday on February 5. As for Clinton and Obama, I have no idea who wins the nomination at this point.

How Huckabee Wins Iowa

The Republican field is a little different from the Democratic one. Establishment Republicans also do well in Iowa, but the state is known for giving fire and momentum to conservative heroes. Ronald Reagan defeated establishment favorite George H.W. Bush in 1980. Senator Bob Dole and conservative televangelist Pat Robertson both beat Vice President Bush in 1988. And conservative Pat Buchanan finished a close second to Dole in 1996.

Given that history, and Huckabee's steady surge in Iowa, he's a strong favorite to win the race. Of the last 6 polls published this month, Huckabee is the only GOP candidate to break 30 percent. And he leads in 4 of those 6 polls by at least 8 percent. Romney has spent considerable time and money in Iowa, and for most of the year he looked like a sure thing. Now, with McCain on his heels, he's struggling just to maintain second place.

Based on the numbers, I predict:

1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. John McCain

How McCain Wins New Hampshire

Coming off a surprising come-from-behind third place finish in Iowa, McCain gets almost as much momentum as Huckabee does going into New Hampshire. But with Giuliani and Thompson lurking in the shadows, the Republican race is still wide open at this point. The real loser is Romney, and he will need a strong showing in New Hampshire to prove himself again.

But here's the rub. New Hampshire is practically an extension of Massachusetts, the state that Romney once governed. I've lived in Boston and New Hampshire, and I've seen southern New Hampshire residents commute across the border to Boston for work everyday. The New Hampshire residents listen to Boston radio stations, support Boston sports teams and follow Boston and Massachusetts politics.

That should give Romney a strong start in the first primary. Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas defeated Bill Clinton in 1992 and Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis defeated Dick Gephardt in 1988. So you would think Romney would be ahead in that state. You would think, but he's not. The most recent polls show Romney's once commanding lead in New Hampshire is slipping fast. He still has an average 9.2 lead from the 6 most recent polls, but the trend is moving downward from a 12 point lead to a 4 point lead to a tie with John McCain.

Yes, John McCain is tied with Mitt Romney 26 percent to 26 percent in the most recent New Hampshire poll. If Romney loses in Iowa and McCain finishes third, as I predicted, then McCain will likely surge to the front of the pack, and then it's a whole new ballgame, to mix a metaphor.

It says a lot about Romney that he can't stay in the lead in his next door state. In other words, the people who know him best are still looking for an alternative. If some of those people are Christian conservatives, then they'll likely be turned on by Huckabee's rise in Iowa. That means Huckabee could chip away at Romney's support and leapfrog over Giuliani.

Also, don't forget that New Hampshire allows Independents to vote in the primary. Since John McCain is the most independent of the big name candidates, he gets a boost from those voters, which pushes him into the top spot. When the smoke clears, I predict:

1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Mike Huckabee

What Happens Next?

That leaves Michigan, South Carolina and Florida to play a decisive role in the pre-Super Tuesday race for the Republicans, and even then it's hard to figure out who wins the nomination. Giuliani had a commanding lead in Florida just a month ago. In fact, he seemed to brag to Tim Russert on "Meet The Press" that he could lose Iowa and New Hampshire and still win big in Florida to compensate. Although Giuliani is still ahead in Florida, one poll has him in third place.

The Republican race won't be decided as quickly as the Democratic contest. The Democrats will have a clear frontrunner by February 5, but the Republicans may still be duking it out. I don't know who is going to win the nomination on either side, but I know it's going to be an exciting 7 weeks from now until the week of Super Tuesday.

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