The Rise and Fall of . . .
By Keith Boykin, in politics
Wednesday, October 31 2007, 12:13PM
When the media get on a roll, they really get on a roll. And the new consensus seems to be that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign, which was supposedly flawless before last night, is now struggling.
Roger Simon wrote on the Politico web site that Clinton gave the "worst performance of her entire campaign" at last night's Democratic presidential debate in Philadelphia. Mark Halperin wrote on the Time magazine site that Clinton fell with a thud. "If she loses the nomination, tonight will go down in history as the first step to her defeat," he wrote. And Steven Stark wrote on the Real Clear Politics web site: "Everyone has off days but this one was special, in that it revealed not a gaffe, which can be explained away, but a potential character flaw."
That's a pretty quick and harsh assessment of the Democratic frontrunner. And it may be accurate, but the funny thing about the media is that they we love to deal in generalizations.
First of all, Hillary Clinton's campaign was never flawless from the beginning. She had real challenges to overcome from the beginning of the race, especially given her vote in favor of the resolution authorizing war with Iraq while left-leaning Democratic primary voters wanted a quick end to the war. She overcame some of those early concerns, in part, by carefully co-opting the positions of her main rivals, but also because of the failure of those rivals to catch up.
Hillary Clinton's success is as much about her own ability as it is about the failure of Barack Obama and John Edwards to figure out a meaningful way to challenge her. Edwards has been on the attack for the past few months, but up until this stage he's been perceived as a third-place candidate holding on to be relevant. Meanwhile, Obama has had the best chance to take it to Clinton, but his campaign has clumsily missed opportunities to distinguish him from her.
After last night we may have a horse race, or at least the media hope we do. Watching Hillary Clinton walk her way to the Democratic nomination the past few months was no fun for journalists and commentators who wanted to see a good old-fashioned fight. But with just 9 weeks until voters go to the polls, the campaigns are suddenly desperate to pull out all the stops.
The media tend to cover campaigns through cycles and templates. The template for each candidate is set fairly early in the process and reinforced by so-called "defining moments" throughout the campaign. Hillary Clinton's template is that of an ice queen who will do or say anything to get elected. Barack Obama's is the young neophyte with a lot of hope but not a lot of experience. And John Edwards's template is the nice guy trial lawyer who desperately wants to be president but can't figure out how to get people to take him seriously.
Now that we have our templates in place, the campaign swings back and forth through different cycles that fit the pre-determined templates of the candidates' character and abilities. The first cycle in January and February was exciting. A black guy, a woman and a Latino all running for the Democratic presidential nomination. Then there was the war cycle of the late winter and early spring when Clinton, Obama and Edwards all struggled to convince Democrats they had the best position on Iraq.
By the summer, we were full into the debate cycle when the candidates met repeatedly in one debate after another. And then in September when the polls showed that Clinton was still in the lead after the long summer and Obama had fallen back, the first fall cycle began to generate stories that Clinton was virtually invincible and running a flawless campaign. "Can anyone stop Hillary?" the media asked.
The next cycle focused on Barack Obama and for a minute there, he couldn't get a break on anything. Every slip up or mistake his campaign made was seen as further evidence that he didn't get it and was losing the race. When Obama did an interview with the New York Times last week and promised to take a tougher stance against Clinton, the media berated him as the "navel gazer in chief" who was far too self-indulgent to be able to run a serious campaign, much less a country. By the time his campaign flubbed the Donnie McClurkin concert, the impression had already been set in the minds of some observers.
But thank goodness for last night because now we have a new cycle to discuss. The new cycle is that Hillary is vincible, if you will. She stumbled last night on the question of giving drivers licenses to illegal immigrants, she's being challenged on her recent vote to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, and some of the candidates are going after her on Social Security as well. Guess she won't be skipping her way to the White House, after all.
But the truth is never as simple as the media portray it. On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee is the new media darling as he is portrayed as the little engine that could win the nomination. And Fred Thompson's time has already come and gone, according to the media observers. All of that may be true, or all of it may be wrong.
And once the campaign unfolds, no matter what it is, all of us in the media will be there to tell you that we told you so.
Comments conceal
Derrick from Philly
October 31 2007, 12:26PM
Joe Biden would crush any Republican, but he can't win a Democratic primary--probably not even Delaware.
That's all I'm going to say...my mind still aint right since Saturday. Obviously, I'm not like those black gay folks in the mental health survey Kenneth wrote about--not at all, honey.
Gordon
October 31 2007, 12:36PM
BEHOLD, 2008, ANOTHER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Billy
October 31 2007, 12:49PM
I like this because now everybody is seeing that Clinton is not all she's cracked up to be.
Quest
October 31 2007, 12:50PM
Joe Biden certainly appeared the most qualified last night.
Q
October 31 2007, 1:37PM
I like Clinton...I am through with Obama.
Michele
October 31 2007, 2:10PM
Gordon, don't jinx it! Unfortunately, I don't think many of Clinton's supporters ever took her that simply. I honestly feel most of them are simply nostalgic for her husband and therefore hope she can kind of re-live his legacy through her presidency. All of the presidential candidates know this. SHE knows this. I think this was a wake up call for her. I think she's been too comfortable with her lead and she now realizes her candidacy isn't guaranteed.
brian
October 31 2007, 2:19PM
i agree with Billy, hillary is a sad choice for president and blacks are going to feel the pain if she wins the nomination because she will not win the presidency, a republican will. i say obama may have issues and he is young and fresh but everyone else has had a chance at screwing america up i think it's time for a BLACK MAN to have a chance as well because America is messed up and hillary clinton is not the answer.peace.
titi
October 31 2007, 2:22PM
THE FACT IS THAT NO CANDITATE IS SAVE FROM THE MEDIA. THE BEST WAY TO KNOW AND UNDESTANT THESE CANDITATES IS TO DETACH ONESELF FROM THE MEDIA PROGNOSTICS WHICH OFTEN SABOTAGE THE EFFORT OF CLINTON AND OBAMA OVER MINER ISSUES.THE MEDIA IS VIRILANTLY BIAS WHEN THEY WANT TO..I THINK OBAMA IS FEELING THE IMPACT OF THAT NOW..HE'S BEEN SERIOUSLY BEATEN BY THE SAME MEDIA AND OFTEN OVER NOTHING..HIS WORDS AND ACTIONS ARE AGRESSIVELY MISQUOTE,TWISTED AND STRETCHED...THE SAD PART OF IT IS THAT AMERICAN VOTERS ARE NOT THAT SOPHISTICATED TO SEE THROUGH THAT DECEIT.
Andre
October 31 2007, 2:46PM
Hillary is the most qualified person for the job. She is not perfect and there is no perfect candidate. She is going to make mistakes just like anyone else. I thought her performance was good and solid. She may have had a few gaffes, but overall she came across as agressive and the person to turn America around. I dont see that in Obama. I think he has great intentions but I dont see him getting the job done. Edwards is simply a hypocrite. Seriously, Obama should have waited 4-8 years and I think he would be our man.
As a gay black man, I look at what Edwards has said in the past about gay marriage, Joe Bidens comments on Obama being articulate (as if a black Harvard grad cant be) and Obama's association with Mary Mary who has said in many interviews that they dont feel comfortable embracing gay fans. Let's not forget Mcclurkin from last week. Think people..think.....just because I look like you does not mean I have you in my best interest.
MidwestGuy
October 31 2007, 3:42PM
Andre, Hillary 'most' qualified? Are you sure you understand the bio and platform of the candidates?
It's not surprising that the maufactured Obama hates gays nonsense fell on deaf ears. It has yet to make it through a single cycle of news coverage.
While we're decrying a gospel singer and Obama, the rest of america, as usual, is ignoring and laughing at us.
How great it would've been for the black gay community to be on "the other" side of an issue for a change.
Just for once and see how that works out.
Ostend Street
October 31 2007, 4:13PM
Hey! Give Hillary a break. She had two men trying desperately to bring her down. Did they succeed? No, they may have caused some concerns, but my biggest concern is that if the democratic party doesn't get it's act together and get some fire in it's gut, we will have four more years of the republican party to look forward to. Lawd!
Luther
October 31 2007, 4:22PM
It was hilarious watching Hillary squirm, there is no way she is going to be able to handle the onslaught of the negative TV and radio ads that the GOP is going it use if she is the nominee.
Drivers license for illegal's, amazing that she would be for that when the majority of citizens don't think its right to reward someone for breaking the law.
@derrick, can't get behind Biden after his comforting remarks about the old South to the S.C. crowd a few months ago.
But, then again, I don't care for any of them running, and, its going to be hard to even vote for the lesser of the evils.
Derrick from Philly
October 31 2007, 4:55PM
Thanks, Luther: I didn't know Biden made a fool out of himself down in South Carolina too. Why do Democrats all think they have to do so much pink ass-kissin' down in Dixie. After the damn primaries, Dixie don't mean shit.
Jaye
October 31 2007, 5:50PM
Well, I've been a Hillary supporter since DAY ONE, and I'm STILL behind my girl! It is waaaaay to early in the game to say who's going to definintely win or lose! So damn what she had a bad night!
BTW, my support for Hillary has NOTHING to do with Obama-Mcclurkin Gate. I just don't see Obama as being the right person for the job at this particular time. Him being a (cute) black man is simply not enough for me right now.
Gordon
October 31 2007, 6:31PM
O.K. Now do you all see what I mean when I say there will be another Republican President!!!!!!!!!!!!
loi wade
October 31 2007, 7:48PM
Brian, I so agree with you. Heaven help us if she wins the democratic slot because she won't win the presidency. It will be another years of 'Bush'.
Mark
October 31 2007, 8:23PM
Well, ya know Gordon, you are right and, I've thought it all along, no matter how many are squealing that they don't want nor can stand for more years of the GOP, I can assure that's what we'll end up with. There are no good choices on either side of this side show, 2 year circus. Rudy the Fascist, since no way is Clinton going to win, and no way is Obama, and, they are the two strongest according to most.
David A. Tobin
October 31 2007, 8:36PM
IT WILL NOT MATTER! It is way to early to tell all the twist and turnes yet to happen. Trust and belive that we have not really seen a true crack in the Clinton Camp, but understand they will all have their day in the same seat as she is in today. Was it just a few days ago Obama had dropped from grace with the gays because of his choice of singers. This race is far from over and this will not hurt her this early.
Me
October 31 2007, 9:00PM
This is only gonna make Hillary STRONGER! She will not make rookie mistakes like Obama. I was pissed off and this made me like Hillary even more and i KNOW there are thousands out there who feel like she's getting a raw deal and will be even more Steadfast in there support for her. like i am.!
903boy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keithboykin.com/blog2/nav-commenters.gif)
October 31 2007, 9:06PM
Oh yeah ,lets gain up on the front runner and make her look bad ! Why are they beating up on each other, do not forget about the big picture !
mark
October 31 2007, 9:34PM
The big picture is Hillary has a ship load of baggage, and, why shouldn't the others use it? The GOP is going to exploit it and use fear to get people not to vote for her.
Plus, I don't see why she is even on the Democratic side, since she is just like Liberman, a conservative in Democratic clothing, since she agrees with Bush ,more than she disagrees with him.
Me
October 31 2007, 9:42PM
NO Mark the BIG picture is we need to get a DEMOCRAT in the Whitehouse.The others shouldnt use it because it gives Republicans talking points and they really dont have a shot at winning. That's why. We have enough conservitive outlets GOP-TV(Fox so-called News),Rush Limblaaaaaah, and the DrudeReport all gunning down Democrats and Librel ideology.Do we really need to be fighting amongest ourself?
ChicagoAngel
October 31 2007, 10:04PM
I have never voted in an election before. But for thes upcoming primaries and then the general election im going to let my so called "voice be heard", with that said, as a Black American I support Mrs. Clinton for the Presidency.
In the primaries she may not take IL. But supposedly my vote will help in some way.
Hillary 2008
cmoney
October 31 2007, 10:40PM
Hillary was horrible last night. All the stereotypes about her came out in her evasive non answers and condescending manner. I truly believe she is the amartest person running on either side, but she is just such a double talking, lying, calculating Beyaatch that she is unelectable. Her duplicitous answers to the question of licenses for illegal aliens was classic Clintonian dishonesty. Democrats are on the wrong side of the illegal alien issue and will not win the White House doing a Texas two step with Bush trying to legitimize illegals. Most Americans are against it and have had it up to here with both the Democrats and the White House coddling illegals. For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Black Caucus and the NAACP are supporting foreigners illegally taking low skill jobs that were formerly filled by African-Americans. They will get the message in 2008--when they lose the White House. Illegal aliens= the Gay Marriage wedge issue of 2008. Just watch.
elg
November 1 2007, 1:36AM
Hilary Clinton needs to be challenged NOW in a forceful, meaningful way on the issues by her Democratic opponents. If her Democratic opponents continue doing the job they should have been doing all along, Hilary will be better prepared LATER to respond to the ruthless scrutiny the Republicans will subject her to, if she's the Democractic nominee for president.
®‡ø
November 1 2007, 4:24AM
Hooray for Hilary
The Republicans hate her
The other Demorcratic nominees are attacking her
She's definately the one to beat
Liquid Fonts
November 1 2007, 8:17AM
Keith wrote that political post so well I hardly noticed the brussel sprouts. Read the whole thing in one sitting. Im still leaning towards Hillary Clinton for my vote though.
Donnell Allen
November 1 2007, 9:41AM
It really surprises me that so many African Americans aren't supporting Barack Obama. This is the first man that is qualified for the Presidency. He not a phony.He intelligent and he stands for what is right. Has anyone ever heard a little black boy or girl ever say they wanted to be President of the United States, no indeed you haven't. We always ask them, do you want to be a lawyer or doctor. The reason being is that they haven't seen anyone that looks like them in that position. Come on people this man has never said he wasn't for the LGBTC community. Deep down inside I believe he does approve of gay marriage he just can't say he does because he would lose this election in a landslide. I could see if he was a Clarence Thomas kind of black man. He has a BLACK wife not like some of the other candidates might have had and he definitely no sellout!! Who cares if he asked Donnie McClurklin to sing at gospel event. He stands for everyone and believes in inclusion. Wake up black people.
Mark
November 1 2007, 10:40AM
Me, the democrats are a bunch of whiners who can't get anything done as it is, and, I don't see it changing if one wins the WH. The only good thing that can come out of a democratic win is no other right wing bigot appointed to the Supreme Court, anything else, all we have to do is look at both houses of Congress now and see they have no backbone.
Donnell, good points, but, Obama has not said one thing I can relate to. I would love to see a black candidate viable, and, one I could support, but, sorry, he just like Hillary, do nothing for me on any level.
MdiwestGuy
November 1 2007, 10:50AM
Some of you guys need to come back to the real world. This isn't a coronation. It's an election. If you think that presidential candidates of the same party should sit idle and refrain from challenging the frontrunner simply because it's not nice or the GOP will use it then you aren't using your head.
If Obama was the frontrunner they would go after him like gays in a locker room.
If you think this is bad, you will suffer from congestive heart failure, a stroke, an anuerysm, and a nervous breakdown 'if' she wins the nomination. They will be unrelenting.
She is being challenged by her opponents on her postions, trust etc., not just ATTACKED as some would suggest.
Why allow her to be the only one who never has to answer a question forthright?
Donnell, part of the reason is because we have to be better than great for us to support each other. Many blacks have given no second thought about what a Clinton presidency means.
Why would they? Her husband was the first black president.
cward![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keithboykin.com/blog2/nav-commenters.gif)
November 1 2007, 11:02AM
It is time for all Americans to take a closer look at John Edwards. I know that many people are not pleased with the notion of electing yet another white male for President.
All of the Democratic candidates for President are close in their ideology of changes for America. I am supporting Edwards because he is the one that will make these changes reality.
Edwards does not have to answer to power brokers like Clinton. It is clear that Clinton does not carry the power of the truth in her purse of skills.
Edwards does not have the political immaturity of Obama. It is clear that while Obama has some grand and majestic ideals he has not embodied them long enough that he is willing to stand firm. Edwards has pursued his economic, environmental and social goals for most of his life and is resolved to make them reality.
Do check out my blog for more information about Edwards.
MidwestGuy
November 1 2007, 12:20PM
Cward, I don't think that any of us should be under any illusion about our candidate of choice. I certainly will not pump Obama up as nothing more than what he is.
That said, are you sure you are not just hoping that Edwards will make these changes?
All candidates have to answer to power brokers at some point, even Obama will. The test is how they answer to them.
I don't know how you are guaging political maturity, but Edwards' elective office experience spans a total 6 years, while Obama has 11 and counting. That means that Edwards had 5 years of elective experience before he became qualified to be a VP running mate.
He became a multi-millionaire trial lawyer by suing companies. I don't know how that translates into the advocate/activist image you have created for him.
He was a lawyer.
Again, let's not be under any illusions about our respective candidates.
I certainly am not.
Just things to reflect upon.
:)
cward![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.keithboykin.com/blog2/nav-commenters.gif)
November 1 2007, 12:57PM
Thanks Midwest Guy, always good to have something to chew and reflect upon.
Edwards’s activism is no different than say "Oprah" she is a talk show host (also a billionaire) and made her lifelong charitable ambitions a reality. They both did not just sit on their money; they both decided to give something back.
It is going to be an election of principles for the Democrats and it will be humbling to see who the American Democratic populous names as its official candidate as the time draws near.
Furthermore, I do hope that these early debates do not decrease voter turnout during this crucial time.
MidwestGuy
November 1 2007, 3:00PM
Cward, I don't take anything away from Edwards and believe him to be sincere.
I simply don't favor his resume nor vision over Obama's.
I would feel comfortable supporting his candidacy should he win the nomination.
None of the candidates are knock-your-socks-off contenders.
Myra
November 1 2007, 6:08PM
I like Edwards, but, he does nothing for me enough to vote for him or any of the others, I guess I'm one of those who is disgruntled, and just don't care who gets in, since it isn't going to really matter at the end of the day, same old lousy pro rich white folks government. And, since I can't vote in the primary in my state since I'm not affilated to either party, its a wait and see if the "nominee" is worth my time, and, so far with this 18 month race, I wish they would all just lay low and be quiet since they are all spewing the same old boring message and not one of them has said anything that I feel is going to make the place better than it has been in the last 7.5 years of incomptence, intolerance and overspending.
Maybe we should all vote for Gravel.
titi
November 2 2007, 8:57AM
the critic of obama by blacks is so unfair. we sure do know how to shoot ourself in the foot..the fact is that none of this radical intellectuals never worked from the grassroot as he did with black community...this guys are known for lip service and photo opportunity...self sabotage is been one of our best achievement. what the hell do they realy want???they want him to kiss them and look over all these winning?? there is nothing he can do to please those who had made their mind amoung blacks ..the vindictive true of is.. (he's just not one of us!!!!)
Jon Gabriel Ortiz
November 3 2007, 11:11AM
It is almost too funny the way this media wheel continues to turn and America is in the middle like the perverbial hamster, going no hwere but feeding the energy for the pointless.
All this showed is that Hillary is without fault. That she (like so many of us) does not neccessarily buy into everything 100%.
I would ask that her critics be careful...because to the naked eye she almost appeared...do I dare say it...HUMAN!!!
alicia banks
November 6 2007, 11:00AM
i blame obama's ego
for not agreeing to be VP to a female
and for sabotaging himself with the likes of rabid toxic psychos like donnie m
peace
ab
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