Final Election Predictions

By Keith Boykin, in politics
Tuesday, November 7 2006, 12:13AM

The time has come, and now the American public will decide. Who will control the House and the Senate for the final two years of the Bush Administration? While some Democrats are concerned that overconfidence may hurt the party, I predict the Democrats will win 30 seats in the House and 5 seats in the Senate. That will give them control of the House and a tie in the Senate.

So as the campaign draws to a close, I offer my specific predictions on some of the key races.

California

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is expected to easily defeat Phil Angelides (D) for re-election. Personally, I would never vote for Arnold. He lost any hope with me after he vetoed the marriage equality bill passed by the California legislature. But in the end, Schwarzenegger will win.

Connecticut

Ned Lamont (D) is running a couple of great new ads against Joe Lieberman (I), but it may be too little, too late. One ad in black-and-white shows Lamont transposed onto a scene from what appears to be "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington." The other ad shows General Wesley Clark attacking Joe Lieberman for his support of the Iraq War. It might have worked a week or two earlier. In the end, Lieberman will beat Lamont. In other races, incumbent Republican Chris Shays will lose his seat.

Florida

No surprise here. Bill Nelson (D) will beat Katherine Harris (R). Harris is so unpopular that President Bush didn't even want to be seen on stage with her at a rally Monday night in Pensacola. But Bush is so unpopular that the state's gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist, didn't show up for his own campaign rally because Bush was going to be there.

Maryland

If Michael Steele (R) were not black, he would have no chance of winning a senate seat in this heavily Democratic state. But Maryland has a large black population and Steele is hoping to win a small chunk of that to beat Ben Cardin (D). The race will be close, but Steele won't win enough black votes and white voters to beat Cardin. In the end, Cardin beats Steele.

Massachusetts

Kerry Healy (R) has run a nasty, racist campaign against Deval Patrick (D), but she will not win the election. Patrick will win and become the first African American governor of Massachusetts.

Missouri

Missouri will be the bellweather for the election. With the stem cell research issue on the agenda, Claire McCaskill (D) may get an edge over Jim Talent (R). But if voters in St. Louis and Kansas City turn out and she wins enough rural voters, that will be enough for McCaskill to squeak out a victory.

Montana

Montana is supposed to be a red state, but incumbent Senator Conrad Burns (R) is embroiled in the Jack Abramoff scandal. The crew-cut wearing Jon Tester (D) has taken advantage of the political situation. Tester beats Burns.

New Jersey

The pundits say this will be a close race, but I don't see how Bob Menendez (D) can lose. This is not going to be close. Menendez will easily beat Tom Kean Jr. (R).

New York

No surprises here. Hillary Clinton (D) will easily beat John Spencer (R). Similarly, in the governor's race, Eliot Spitzer will coast to victory as the state's first Democratic governor since Mario Cuomo. In fact, Democrats will take control of all the statewide offices, including the re-election of embattled Comptroller Alan Hevesi.

Ohio

Ohio is suffering and George Bush is being blamed. Sherrod Brown (D) will easily defeat Mike DeWine (R) in the Senate race. In the governor's race, Ted Strickland will easily beat Ken Blackwell (R). Thank goodness because Blackwell is odious.

Pennsylvania

Pro-life Democrat Bob Casey Jr. (D) should easily defeat anti-gay conservative Rick Santorum (R) in the Senate race. In the governor's race, Ed Rendell will beat former Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Lynn Swann (R).

Rhode Island

They say this one will be close, but the tide is against the Republicans. I predict Sheldon Whitehouse (D) will defeat Lincoln Chafee (R) in the Senate.

Tennessee

This is the hardest race for me. In my heart, I want Harold Ford (D) to win. Although he's much too conservative for my blood, and I am offended by the way he boasts his opposition to gay marriage, I still want him to win. He would be the first African American senator from the South since 1881. Most polls show Bob Corker (R) ahead, and since voters tend to lie when black candidates are on the ballot, Ford lacks the cushion he needs to win. It would be a major upset if Ford won, but I'm not ready to predict that.

Virginia

Race has also been an issue in Virginia, where George Allen (R) has been tripped up ever since his infamous "macaca" comment. At this point in the race, Allen, an incumbent, should have closed the deal. The fact that he has not suggests that he's maxed out. Jim Webb (D) will beat George Allen (R).

Comments (16) reveal

Comments conceal

Kenneth Winfrey
November 7 2006, 1:57AM

I hate to say it, but I think that Heather Wilson could retain her seat in the House. This is based on Patricia Madrid's lack of experience on a national level, a weak record in law, and Wilson's strong support in the military, oil & gas, and faith communities. There was even a woman at my church wearing a Wilson pin.

The war is a big issue, and it is probably the greatest factor that has that race in a dead heat. I'm sure the other Republican scandals have contributed to her questionable position as well. She took money from Abramoff, but gave it to charity (perhaps the Girl Scouts). She also supported the war when she knew that the intelligence was flawed (she is on two intelligence committees). Despite this, many people I know in New Mexico support the war.

On the other hand, this is a very Libertarian-esque culture. We don't like big government, and we don't like government interference. New Mexicans don't like to be told what to do. Democrats also already control our State government.

Seahawk
November 7 2006, 9:36AM

I will never understand how the California Democratic Party EVER thought Phil Angelides could win.
I knew he was in trouble from the first time I saw him. He is the dullest person imaginable. Sadly, we have a thing out here for white male movie stars. Remember, we brought you Ronald Reagan.

chris-leo
November 7 2006, 10:21AM

although i'm pretty sure ford's gonna get his hat handed to him, there is one tiny possibility that might play out.

around 40% of the tennessee votes have already been cast (before election day), and that was before the attack ad and before ford was sliding in the polls, so it's just possible although not like that.....

hollis
November 7 2006, 10:30AM

what do you think about Wisconsin and the Marriage ban? Is Tammy Baldwin going to prevail?

James
November 7 2006, 10:32AM

I still don't support Ford's politics, but I have decided to vote for him after work today. It would be nice to have a Black senator from Tennessee even if he is waaaaaay too conservative for my tastes.

Cincinnati NAMjA
November 7 2006, 11:17AM

I agree with your thoughts about Kenny Blackwell.

jared
November 7 2006, 3:01PM

then there is arizona, my state,with the anti-gay marriage initiative that i'm sure will win big in this right wing state. and to annoy me to no end was the letter for it from that "good guy republican" john mccain, who i would NEVER for . this guy has flip flopped more than anyone trying to curry the favor of the right wing in his bid for the 2008 presidency.

the senate race is close, but, as with most "close" races here, the gop candidate, jon kyl who wants the gay marriage amendment, will pull it out, and he has a record of voting with bush 96% of the time. and in true form,he was one of the few outside of the south not to sign on to the lynching apology this year, to which i fired off a letter, along with many others and he then signed on to it. its just a shame that you have to constantly write and call these "elected" politicians to egg them on to do what is right, but, to his credit, he does reply back with the issue and what he feels about it and why, including my issue of the moment, sudan.

madprofessah
November 7 2006, 3:22PM

Awwww, come on Keith ya gotta play the NUMBERS game.
Did you see the NY TIMES website "predict the midterm results" section?
You can't just call some of the non-competitive Senate races, what about the competitive Governor and House races?

The real fun is making your predictions for the numbers of seats Democrats will gain in the House of Represenatives, the Senate and the Statehouses around the country.

I predict +30 in Houses, +5 in U.S. Senate and +8 in Governorships for Democrats.

cmoney
November 7 2006, 3:27PM

Heavy turnout in Prince George's County today ,but I don't think Steele is going to make it. It took me 1 hour and 15 minutes to vote at 7:30 this morning. The most offensive thing I saw were signs lining the roads in support of Steele that read "We R Not Slaves to the Democrats". Talk about racial politics! This is from the same guy who claimed he was offended when Cong. Steny Hoyer said Steele had "slavish devotion" to the GOP. The best news I heard is when Steele showed up at the polling place and one of the women called him a "Black Bush" and another refused to let him jump in front of her in line so he could vote and then go campaign some more. I'm glad those sisters had the guts to let him know how most of us feel about his sell out ass and that we are not falling for the "vote for me because I'm Black" routine.

dogonland
November 7 2006, 4:03PM

I just don't get the nostalgia around wanting to see a black senator from conservative (and he's conservative!!, Bible-belt Tennessee. Is this some macho, male crap I'm missing??!!

Weigh the two: being offended by his conservatism but voting because you are so desperate to see another black face in the senate OR he wins and drops some legislation/law/mandate on your ass that really screws you AND the black community in a horrible way.

Sentimentalism is sloppy logic, plain and simple. Grow up, ya'll!!

KBJr.
November 7 2006, 6:33PM

Keith, you predictions are slightly irritating to me. First of all, if Sherrod Brown does win the Senate seat (God forbid) it won't be easily; it'll be a slim margin. My problem with your predictions is that they're so overly partisan that it just isn't reality. Allen will win. DeWine (I'm hoping) will win. Burns will win. Chafee will lose, not because he's out of the Rhode Island-mainstream, but because he has an 'R' next to his name (Whitehouse is such a NON-candidate); speaking of non-candidates, if Ohioans decide to elect Ted "Do Nothing" Strickland, it'll say we didn't learn our lesson with Bob Taft. I'll be glad to see Santorum go. In Menendez's case, he'll win just because of the 'D' next to his name (really a shame). Corker's gonna beat Dems latest 'front' candidate Harry Ford Jr. Michael Steele I think has a real shot, but that all depends. The same with Talent. I hope ole' Joe Lieberman sticks it to the Dems when he gets back to DC too.

jared
November 7 2006, 7:56PM

KBJr, "ole" Joe Liberman has ben sticking it to the Dem's for years and it makes no sense that he just dosen't be honest and admit he is a Rupugnat, republican, so, nothing new there. The Tenn race, it will go along raical lines, like every election in the Deep South. As one stategist for the GOP said a couple of years ago for the presedential election, they have that vote so locked up, that you could put King Kong on the ballot as a republican and he would win in a landslide in most of those states, its anything but black.

Fernando
November 7 2006, 8:27PM

As a Nashvillian, I cast my vote for Ford today. Not because I thought he represented all of my opinions but because voting for Corker would be stupid. At least Ford will caucus with the Dems and consider changing his stance on issues. Corker is a sure fire Republican who will do nothing for my interests.

dogonland
November 7 2006, 8:57PM

And if you voted for someone with any kind of anti-gay stance (a la Ford) that was stupid! What makes you think a united front will change his stance on issues?? If that were the case, we wouldn't be dealing with the Bush Regime and Colin Powell would still be around!

Ty
November 7 2006, 10:55PM

Fernando, keep it real bro, keep it real. Not one Republican will do anything to make the lives of blacks any better, and most won't even pay lip service and lie that they will, since most don't even go into the black areas looking for votes, they know they have thier base, and only need a few other white votes. The two groups that will be out in the cold, again, blacks, gays, and to a lesser extent Hispanics.

Fernando
November 7 2006, 11:18PM

So if the only option was to vote with someone that wasn't promoting an anti-gay stance, what was I to do? Not vote? Now THAT would be stupid.