Predictions From Europe

By Keith Boykin, in pop culture
Monday, June 9 2003, 5:21AM

I'm away in Europe the next two weeks, but I will try to keep my site updated from abroad. Since I was able to predict the Tony Award winners on Friday, I thought I would start the new week by offering a few more predictions for the time I'm out of the country. Here's what I predict.

In Iraq, I predict no weapons of mass destruction will be found and the Bush Administration will continue to squirm to defend its decision to launch a war against Saddam Hussein.

In Zimbabwe, I predict the political situation will deteriorate rapidly and President Robert Mugabe himself may be driven out of power. The American media have failed to report much from Zimbabwe, but that country is quickly slipping into chaos. President Mugabe is pulling no punches in his desperate effort to maintain his loosening grip on power, but the public is growing weary.

Here in this country, I predict Americans will finally realize why the presidential elections matter when the U.S. Supreme Court decides controversial cases on affirmative action and homosexuality.

In the Lawrence v. Texas case, I predict the high court will strike down the Texas sodomy law that outlaws homosexual anal and oral intercourse. The court will reverse its wrongly decided 1986 decision in Bowers v. Hardwick. In an unexpectedly lopsided decision, Justices Stevens, Souter, Breyer, Ginsburg, Kennedy and O'Connor will form the majority to invalidate the Texas law, while Justices Scalia and Rehnquist will strongly dissent.

After Clarence Thomas's own sexual preferences were publicized in his 1991 confirmation hearings, I find it hard to believe that he will dissent on this case, but Thomas has disappointed me many times before. Thomas won't buy the equal protection argument that the sodomy law discriminates against homosexuals, but he may sign on to an opinion that extends the right to privacy to sexual matters in the bedroom.

The court's two affirmative action cases are much more difficult to predict. In a close, controversial and confusing opinion, Justices Stevens, Souter, Breyer, Ginsburg and O'Connor will uphold the University of Michigan law school affirmative action policy. Justice Scalia will write a withering dissent, and Justice Thomas will join in the chorus of naysayers.

The court will be more critical of the Michigan undergraduate policy but will still uphold the policy with the same 5-4 split.

Also in the courts, I predict Morehouse College sophomore Aaron Price will be convicted of aggravated assault for his antigay November 2002 attack on Morehouse junior Gregory Love. After a post-conviction expression of contrition, Price will be sentenced to probation instead of the maximum 20 year term. Gay activists will be outraged.

In publishing, I predict Hillary Clinton's new book, Living History, released this morning, will shoot to the top of the bestseller list.

In tennis, I predict the weekend ratings will show that no one in the U.S. watched Justine Henin-Hardenne defeat Kim Clijsters in the French Open finals because the Williams Sisters weren't playing. All the people who complained that Venus and Serena were hogging the spotlight will see just how dark it is without them. They'll be back for Wimbledon.

I predict basketball will also struggle for ratings. Without Michael Jordan or the Lakers around, San Antonio will win the NBA championship but no one will care.

In baseball, I predict the Sammy Sosa controversy will blow over but Sosa will lose the appeal of his suspension.

And finally, I predict I will return home to 500 emails when I get back to the U.S. and it will take me two weeks to go through them all.

Despite my absence, this site will be updated as often as possible while I'm in Europe. However, I will not be available by email or on the message board during this time. See you soon.